The Parrot and the Igloo: A Deep Dive into Climate Denial with Author David Lipsky
A conversation with David Lipsky, author of The Parrot and the Igloo
Global warming is a long history spent in the hall of ironies, a statement that resonates throughout our discussion today. We delve into the fascinating yet troubling journey of climate science, tracing back to Svante Arrhenius, who first calculated the impact of accumulating greenhouse gases over a century ago, to the alarming forecasts of the 1950s that continue to haunt us. Amidst this, we uncover the unsettling tactics of climate denial, echoing the tobacco industry's playbook, where for-hire scientists sowed doubt to stall progress.
Lipsky shares his extraordinarily well-researched insights on how this narrative unfolded, revealing how the merchants of doubt have clouded our collective response to an existential crisis. Join us as we explore the paradoxes of our climate reality, where the awareness of impending crisis often clashes with a lack of decisive action, leaving us to wonder: How did we end up here?
This episode is a witty and thought-provoking discussion revealing the intricate relationship between science, politics, and public perception.
Takeaways:
- Svante Arrhenius's early calculations of greenhouse gases highlight a century-long understanding of climate science.
- The irony of climate denial mirrors the tobacco industry's playbook, using misinformation to sway public opinion.
- David Lipski's 'The Parrot and the Igloo' reveals the long history of climate change awareness and its frustrating denial.
- Our discussions on global warming reflect a tragicomedy, emphasizing the urgent necessity for action in a delayed response.
- The historical context of climate science illustrates how public understanding has evolved yet remained stagnant in action.
- Despite awareness since the 1950s, global warming remains contentious, showcasing our collective failure to act decisively.
About David Lipsky
Visit GlobalWarmingisReal
00:00 - Untitled
00:45 - The Ironies of Global Warming
00:51 - The Climate Debate and Denial
06:15 - The Climate Change Discourse: Understanding Reactions and Narratives
10:39 - Introduction to Sea Level Rise
20:03 - The Climate Challenge: Reflections on Policy and Action
24:43 - Cultural Reflections on Climate Action
32:54 - The Technological Solution and Moral Responsibility
40:41 - The Climate Crisis: A Call to Action
44:13 - The Ozone Crisis: A Turning Point in Environmental Awareness
49:00 - The Myth of the Boiling Frog
55:07 - The Evolution of Climate Science and Measurement
58:38 - The Unfolding Climate Crisis: Historical Context
01:03:28 - The Jason Report and Its Impact on Climate Policy
01:10:41 - The Impact of Climate Change Awareness
It was Svante August Arrhenius, a Nobel Prize winning Swedish physicist and chemist who did the first hard calculations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and how burning coal could upset Earth's energy balance.
Speaker AHis calculations, done so long ago, proved hauntingly accurate.
Speaker AIn the 1950s, scientists like Roger Avell and Charles Keeling warned of the dangers of burning fossil fuels.
Speaker AIn October of 1956, the New York Times published an article about rising levels of CO2 in the atmosphere and the impact it has on the climate.
Speaker AGlobal warming is a long history spent in the hall of Ironies.
Speaker AThat's an excerpt from David Lipski's the Parrot and the Igloo.
Speaker ALipski is an excellent storyteller, a New York Times best selling author and he brings his writing skills to bear in his long exhaustive study of climate science, climate change and climate denial.
Speaker AHe tells me in our upcoming interview how writing the book was an act of revenge against the merchants of doubt that have clouded our response to climate change.
Speaker AIt is a long circuitous, sometimes funny, often enraging story well told by Mr.
Speaker ALipski.
Speaker AJoin me on this lively discussion with David Lipski, author of the Parrot and the Igloo.
Speaker BLet me put my headphones on and tell me how the sound quality is.
Speaker COkay.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker CSo horse are good.
Speaker BWhere do I find you?
Speaker CWhere am I?
Speaker CI'm in the Monterey Bay area in the West Coast.
Speaker BThat looked like, that had the.
Speaker BThat looked like a Bay area.
Speaker BYeah, a Bay area shelf and.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker CWhere are you in.
Speaker CWhere are you?
Speaker BI'm in the upper part of midtown Manhattan.
Speaker BBut I think that my background has no character whatsoever.
Speaker BYou could not draw a single imprint.
Speaker BI think it maybe looks like a supply closet at some sort of medium sized corporate firm.
Speaker BThat's good.
Speaker CSo I gotta say I'm really enjoying your book.
Speaker CI was gonna like power through it and get to the, get to the chase, you know, all the evil people that are denying crime.
Speaker CBut when I started it, it's just, I'm slow walking through it because it's such an enjoyable read.
Speaker BSo thanks very much.
Speaker CThanks for that.
Speaker CWhat was the one line that global warming is a long history.
Speaker CSpit in the hall of ironies.
Speaker CI think that's great.
Speaker BCan I tell you another irony right now?
Speaker BYeah, please.
Speaker BYou know that we had our first good year on emissions last year.
Speaker BWe had, you know that the IPCC request that we all trim internationally, we trim our emissions by 45% by 2030.
Speaker BHalfway there.
Speaker BEveryone's after all the headlines.
Speaker BNo one did a progress report.
Speaker BWe're halfway There.
Speaker BAnd I think worldwide emissions are up 4% since 2018.
Speaker BHowever, hours are down and our coal use, as you know, is wildly down.
Speaker BAround 2005, we were at 51% electricity generated by coal.
Speaker BI think now we're under 20%.
Speaker BDo you know what, off the top.
Speaker COf my head I'd want to say natural gas, but I'm not sure.
Speaker BYeah, no, of course, but that's fracking.
Speaker BLike every good hearted person wanted to go out and protest fracking because where do we get the right to squeeze water into fissures under our boots?
Speaker BBut that's the best thing, that terrible thing that we do to the planet is the best thing that we can do to the planet at the moment.
Speaker BLook, how could a story not be ironical about this issue?
Speaker BLet's say Superman.
Speaker BLet's say Superman is the one thing that's keeping Earth safe from intergalactic threats.
Speaker BAnd then it turns out that Superman is radioactive to every human being.
Speaker BThat is the ironic situation we find ourselves.
Speaker BAnyway.
Speaker BYes, thank you for making that.
Speaker CYeah, it's interesting about coal.
Speaker CI recently wrote a brief article, I guess the G7 has pledged to globally, of course, phase out all these catchphrases.
Speaker CPhase out unabated coal by 2035.
Speaker CAnd what was interesting was I did a social media Facebook boost on that post.
Speaker CAnd the denial, the what is the 10% of the noisy people that just, they don't even realize what we just talked about, how the United States is actually really cutting down on coal.
Speaker CThey just, you know, what were they saying?
Speaker CA lot of it was about China.
Speaker CThey just mentioned China.
Speaker CYou know, China's using coal.
Speaker COne comment was, how are you going to power all those electric cars from Joe Biden?
Speaker CA lot of it didn't even.
Speaker CMy Facebook page is called Global Warming is Real.
Speaker CSo they didn't even get to the article headline.
Speaker CThey just stopped.
Speaker CThey just stopped right there.
Speaker CAnd you know, I'm a fool.
Speaker CIt's a hoax.
Speaker CIt's sometimes depressing to see that there's still.
Speaker CAnd I know that it's a small, small vocal group, but they're there and they believe all these crazy things that you know, the hoax.
Speaker BAnd what do you, what do you think is, what do you think is motivating that like they're right about.
Speaker BThey write about China.
Speaker BI'm sure you know this number I know, which is the number of coal plants they've built on an annual basis last couple of years is like 168 new coal plants in China.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BThat is basically one every three days.
Speaker BIt is shocking number.
Speaker BIt is.
Speaker BWhat do you think is motivating them to say that?
Speaker CTo say, these deniers about being a hoax and all this sort of thing?
Speaker CThat's a good question.
Speaker CYou know, climate change has become such a part of the culture war now, and I guess they listen to Fox.
Speaker CI don't know.
Speaker CThey're getting their information.
Speaker BI like how you were gonna say it's Fox, and then you're like, fuck it.
Speaker BI don't want to be the person saying Fox News is bad today.
Speaker BLet someone else say it at Pacific time, but not me.
Speaker CIt feels too easy to say that sometime.
Speaker BYeah, exactly.
Speaker BYeah, of course.
Speaker BSo what do you think is like, I have a thought about it, but I'm really curious to hear yours.
Speaker CWell, perhaps fear is part of it.
Speaker CI mean, what they see is their way of life, you know, being threatened and they're going after the messenger, perhaps.
Speaker CAnd that's a viable or a realistic fear.
Speaker CI mean, I understand that the world we live in is unsustainable and I don't really know how we're going to get out of it necessarily.
Speaker CSo it's kind of frightening.
Speaker CBut I think it's.
Speaker CI think it's fair.
Speaker CI think it ties in with all sorts of other political narratives that are happening right now in the U.S.
Speaker Cwell, globally, I guess, but in the U.S.
Speaker Cand they equate people like me that write about and you that write about climate change as part of the problem, part of what's threatening their existence, all those same.
Speaker BI was taking notes on them because they were interesting, all of those.
Speaker BThat's the way I understand it, too.
Speaker BI think there's probably only a couple things that I would add to it.
Speaker BI was just curious.
Speaker BAnd then there's one that probably that I would have a special reason to think about.
Speaker BActually, there's two that I would have a special reason to think about.
Speaker BOne is my favorite movie is Jaws.
Speaker COh, okay.
Speaker BHave you ever seen Jaws?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker CLong time ago, but yeah.
Speaker BOkay, watch it.
Speaker BWatch it again.
Speaker BA simple explanation for why they would want to attack you is just the plot of Jaws.
Speaker BAnd it's also the plot of Enemy of the People, which is, I think, Ibsen.
Speaker BDo you know the plot of An Enemy of the People?
Speaker BAnd you can just look it up.
Speaker BYou can look it up on wiki and you'll smile when you read it.
Speaker BOkay, I'll look it up.
Speaker BWhat it said, what it suggests is that human behavior is standard across eras, regardless of the issue, and in a weird way, predictable.
Speaker BSo here's the plot of An Enemy of the People.
Speaker BThere's a town, let's say it's in Germany or it's in Sweden.
Speaker BI think it's in Swedish.
Speaker BWouldn't it be funny if it's not by Ibsen at all?
Speaker BBut in any event, he's a town doctor and they have a spring like Lourdes that people come to.
Speaker BAnd, you know, there's a lot of tourism.
Speaker BIt's a quiet moneymaker for the town.
Speaker BAnd for fun, just the doctor is doing a science experiment.
Speaker BHe tests it, and it turns out that that spring causes typhus.
Speaker BThere's just no question about it.
Speaker BIt is just a polluted spring.
Speaker BAnd so the thing that's a money generator for the town is poisonous.
Speaker BAnd so he goes to.
Speaker BIn the first few scenes, the mayor is like, you're our best doctor.
Speaker BI love growing up with you.
Speaker BYou're amazing.
Speaker BAnd then everybody exiles him, ostracizes him, because the data that he's bringing now, that's also the plot of Jaws.
Speaker BThe chief says the shark is.
Speaker BAnd the mayor says very frankly, Amity.
Speaker BHe says to him, confidentially, amity is a summer town.
Speaker BWe need summer dollars.
Speaker BAnd so everybody is angry at the chief.
Speaker BWhen you're seen, if you know the movie pretty well, the scene where Robert Shaw drags his fingernails across the blackboard to get people's attention and then he offers to be hired.
Speaker BEveryone's angry at the chief because he wants to shut the beaches down and they don't want to.
Speaker BSo has nothing.
Speaker BLike, once you understand that's how people respond when something that they've relied on and something that's helped them make money, there's a suggestion that it'd be taken away.
Speaker BThen it allows you to be.
Speaker BNot to like those people, but to understand that it's human.
Speaker BAnd then try to figure out don't have to do with one's inane angry desire.
Speaker BInnate angry desire just to squash.
Speaker BSecond thing that I find kind of fascinating is that S.
Speaker BFred Singer, who I'm sure you know his dark works.
Speaker BAnd if not, you'll read about him in the second half of the book.
Speaker BYeah, I know.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BSo he's one of the two.
Speaker BTwo or three biggest.
Speaker BI would say he probably did more damage than anybody.
Speaker BAll he wanted was that we do a cost benefit analysis.
Speaker BLike if you just.
Speaker BIf you took away all of his lies and his comically awkward lies.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BLike the best.
Speaker BI think the one woman I quote, which I love because it's so edged.
Speaker BThis is about Sea level rise.
Speaker BThe best thinking may be that it is a lowering of the land surface, but I just love the bullshittiness.
Speaker BBut also the best thinking.
Speaker BBut think about how just how wonderfully lawyered it is and that he can do that on the fly.
Speaker BThe best thinking may be.
Speaker BAnd also he kept saying, I know, you know, how this happened, but they feasted on that bad satellite Data for about 20 years.
Speaker BThe satellites didn't show that there was heating at the poles, especially a lot of heating up by Grayland.
Speaker BAnd so he would say, even though that was corrected by the middle 90s, he still was.
Speaker BHe was still quoting the bad data by the early part of our century.
Speaker BAnd so he kept saying for years, he would say, if it were true, we would see that there was melting at the pulse.
Speaker BAnd someone finally said to him, I think Joel Aschenbach from The post in 2007 said to him, yeah, there is.
Speaker BYou can navigate it 2/3 of the year.
Speaker BAnd instead of saying, oh, I was wrong, he then said, oh, that's great.
Speaker BFor years he didn't even say, that's great.
Speaker BWell, for years we've been looking for a Northwest Passage, and now we found one like he just shifted.
Speaker BSo anyway, the result of all of his desperate sort of Daffy Duck on the vaudeville stage improvisations, the result is he got us to the situation that he wanted in the mid-80s when he started thinking about this, and especially in the 90s, what he wanted to do since he styled himself an economist.
Speaker BHe wanted us to do a cost benefits analysis, which is, how much is it?
Speaker BHow bad is it to have ourselves heat up 1 to 4 degrees versus how good is it to have the convenience of fossil fuel?
Speaker BNow, if we had acted during the window when this issue was fresh, we wouldn't have done that, right?
Speaker BAnd we would be much farther along.
Speaker BBut now that we've waited for 30 or 40 years and that the average voter can see that nothing horrible happened immediately, they are naturally doing the cost benefits analysis in their head.
Speaker BAnd that's the situation that we're in now, which is they've had 30 years of intelligently stirred warnings about this and they've decided it's livable.
Speaker BAnd that's what they're trying to express to you.
Speaker BNow, the other.
Speaker BThose are the two ways that I looked at it that I thought you might not have.
Speaker BThe culture war thing, that's what the title of the book means, which is generally what any issue walks into the auditorium of our national debating questions.
Speaker BIt gets cycled to one or the other.
Speaker BAnd when you get to the end, you'll see that where.
Speaker BWe could talk about it now if you wanted.
Speaker BBut I think that once we see an issue become that way, take off its wheel clothes and put on team clothes.
Speaker BI think a part of us that is beyond our social responsibilities understands this bullshit.
Speaker BAnd I think that's a problem.
Speaker BAnd it's bad that this happened to global warming the way it's happened to everything else.
Speaker BI don't think they're wrong to see it that way.
Speaker BFor example, just as a side note, if you're an intelligent.
Speaker BI didn't want to say the word because one thing I learned from spending, but I spent about four or five years deeply involved with the military because I went to West Point as a reporter, basically.
Speaker BAnd I was a funny person to send to that because my family was so progressive that my father told my brother and I when we were, you know, 10, 10 and 8, that we could do any job we wanted.
Speaker BWe could be doctors, we could.
Speaker BWe could clean streets.
Speaker BThe only thing he would forbid is that if we ever tried to join the military, he would hire strong guys to break our legs because he thought they were so immoral.
Speaker BOkay, but when I.
Speaker BIf you ever.
Speaker BYou must know people in the military, they're great and they actually believe in a lot of the stuff that we claim to believe outside.
Speaker BLike they don't care about money, and they do care about the people on the left and right, and they do care about shared objectives.
Speaker BOne thing I also learned during the four or five years that I was reporting on the military or reporting on the military experience at West Point is there are a lot of good people who believe things that you and I disagree with.
Speaker BAnd looking at it as science, if we were pretending we're scientists, looking at it in a polarizing way hasn't solved the problem of people disagreeing with us in ways that we see aren't to their benefit or to the natural benefit.
Speaker BSo I resent myself that I wanted to say assholes.
Speaker BIt is totally counterproductive.
Speaker BHowever, if somebody who is disinfined to believe this, think about their experience over the last 30 years.
Speaker BThis is the most serious issue facing us.
Speaker BOne of the fun things when you get to the denier section of the book is just how repetitive the history of the last 30 or 40 years has become.
Speaker BThe same issues.
Speaker BAbortion is back.
Speaker BImmigration is back.
Speaker BEducation is back.
Speaker BLike we.
Speaker BIn a weird way, you could argue that one of the.
Speaker BAmong the ironic bits of that, among the ironic bits of misfortune suffered by this particular issue is that it walked into the political auditorium at the moment.
Speaker BThat campaign strategy, that information discipline, achieved maturity as a profession.
Speaker BSo that what Lee Atwater, what people like Lee Atwater put into practice in the later 70s and in the 80s, is a way to keep issues constantly in play but never resolving them.
Speaker BSo you always have gotd.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BWithout ever having to reach an issue.
Speaker BLike one of the funny things about the abortion.
Speaker BTom.
Speaker BDo you want to call you Tom Thomas?
Speaker BOkay, great.
Speaker BTom, I know you're a political head too, right?
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BSo the abortion issue, what they understood, not people who were committed, not people who were movement conservatives, but the people who, like Reagan, were fellow travelers with them.
Speaker BThey understood that the abortion thing would be great for gotv.
Speaker BAnd you could keep saying, hey, we're going to get more justices on the court if you keep electing us.
Speaker BAnd then some smart people in the room said, at a certain point we will have elected enough justices to actually pass that law and it will make us unpalatable.
Speaker BAnd the idea was we'll cross that bridge when we get there.
Speaker BAnd now they're there.
Speaker BRight?
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BSo at the same time, that campaign strategy achieved critical mass and became an absolutely viable and devious profession.
Speaker BThen it came 1979, 1988, a period that we walked this issue, walked into the room.
Speaker CRight.
Speaker BAnd so they can tell that it's also a GOTV thing for the Democrats.
Speaker BAnd so since the Democrats are using it tribally, they respond tribally.
Speaker BSo you have heard that it's the most serious issue facing us as a way to get thought leaders to say we need to have a Democrat now more than ever.
Speaker BWe need to have a Democrat here.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThat is why you have thought that that's why you would do the high end work.
Speaker BIt's the same reason why the West Wing.
Speaker BWho would have thought we'd be talking about Aaron Sorkin this morning?
Speaker BIt's the reason that the West Wing was the most expensive ad for a while on NBC.
Speaker BNever that highly rated a show, but the audience was the audience that BMW wanted.
Speaker BSo that that was the reason why if you read stuff about advertising on the West Wing during its first few seasons, it was super attractive as a get.
Speaker BYou wanted to buy your half minute or minute, even though it wasn't a giant.
Speaker BIt wasn't a giant viewership, but it was the right viewership.
Speaker BSimilarly, it's good to make those noises that you were, if you elect us, we're going to.
Speaker BYeah, it's fun to read about similarly if you make the noises that if you elect our side, we're going to deal with the problem, even though it's never polled terribly high as an issue.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIt's always at the bottom, even with kids, even with college students, however much they talk about it.
Speaker BGallup did polls this season and also Harvard through Harris did polls this season and it was down near the bottom, up at the top with inflation and jobs, as it always is with kids.
Speaker CThat's interesting though.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BNo, because we think of them as the most committed.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BBut anyway, if you keep hearing thought leaders saying this is the key issue, and when I was mentioning that our politics have become comically, wonderfully circular.
Speaker B1992, Margaret Thatcher is saying the biggest threat is not from Saddam Hussein.
Speaker BAnd his text, the biggest threat is from the possibility of global climate change.
Speaker BThat's the end of 1992 and is ten years later.
Speaker BHamz Blix, in the last weeks before we go into Iraq again, is saying the biggest threat is not Hussein.
Speaker BI'm much more worried about global climate change.
Speaker BSo that.
Speaker BThat's how circulated the same speeches delivered on the eve of the exact same international events.
Speaker BAnyway, so if you've been hearing that for 30 years and then as you'll see when you get to that part of the book, a.
Speaker BWhen the IPCC finally brings back a verdict in February of 2007, and it's unequivocal, humans are causing this, what we go out to try to change.
Speaker BWe don't have the idea about EVs then.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThere isn't an ambitious plan to bring back more effective nuclear reactors.
Speaker BDo you know what we decided to.
Speaker CBan that year in 2007?
Speaker CNo.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThat was the big emotional.
Speaker BThe big emotional issue that they began with was the fucking light bulb.
Speaker BThe light bulb.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BIt was so crushing to Al Gore that at Davos, after he got the Nobel, he's saying it's about changing laws, not light bulbs.
Speaker BEven though An Inconvenient Truth ended with advice like change or light bulbs, he didn't mean that.
Speaker BThe kind of thing that we should focus on.
Speaker BBecause if you are unconvinced or if you think that the deal we get from fossil fuels balance the pros and cons is still pretty good.
Speaker BIf you're hearing for 28 years that nothing is more important and then they begin by saying, let's get rid of light bulbs, you're going to think that it's not true.
Speaker BSimilarly, if we are hearing that this is the biggest challenge facing the world and no actions are taken.
Speaker BAnd at the same time that you're hearing that, you'll remember in February and March And April of 2020, if you're watching the news, you're seeing the hard time Italy is suddenly having because of COVID The question was, would it stay in China?
Speaker BMight stay in China.
Speaker BIt has spread to Europe.
Speaker BItaly is more like us than China is.
Speaker BAnd they are not letting people out of their houses at night.
Speaker BThey are actually patrolling the streets and there's a crisis in ventilators.
Speaker BAnd so that is a problem.
Speaker BAnd we see that over a two week period, people change their entire way of life and they change it for more than a year.
Speaker BBut that is seen as a smaller problem than global warming.
Speaker BSo if you've been hearing for, at that point, by 2020, you've been hearing for 40 years that this is the biggest challenge facing the world, but there's never a big action taken.
Speaker BWhat could they wonder?
Speaker BBut is it a hoax?
Speaker CYeah, I mean, that makes, makes perfect sense.
Speaker CYeah, it does.
Speaker CIt's.
Speaker CYou know, I've done two of the COP conferences.
Speaker CCOP 15 in 2000 in COP 21 in 2015.
Speaker BAnd was 15 cutter.
Speaker BIs that right or is that 15?
Speaker CWas, was Copenhagen.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CAnd what was interesting to me, and at this point.
Speaker CWell, I'll back up.
Speaker BGo for it.
Speaker CYeah, well, yeah, in Copenhagen.
Speaker CArrived on scene there the second day after it started.
Speaker CAnd by then the whole thing was off the rails.
Speaker CEverybody's mad at everybody else.
Speaker CAnd that was the one where we trying to figure out what to do after the Kyoto Protocol.
Speaker CAnd that was disheartening.
Speaker BYeah, that was the one that was seen as a total failure.
Speaker CTotal failure.
Speaker CAnd then Paris in 2015, it was kind of opposite.
Speaker CYou know, we, everybody was.
Speaker BCopenhagen also, when you reread, that was also compromised by the beginning of Climategate.
Speaker BSo that's the other reason that Copenhagen couldn't get.
Speaker CThat's right.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BWhen you read that part of the book, you'll get a cold sweat.
Speaker CYeah, yeah, I remember that.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BBut then, but then 2015, but 2015.
Speaker CThere was just a determination to come away with something.
Speaker CThe whole, the whole vibe around the conference was a lot more positive than I do.
Speaker CIt's a real side note.
Speaker CI remember I was riding into the compound.
Speaker CThey had shared rides with somebody from the E.U.
Speaker Cand this is, of course, December of 2015, and Trump was just getting started.
Speaker CAnd she said, you know, we're really concerned over here in Europe about Donald Trump.
Speaker CAnd I remember saying, don't worry, there's no Chance you'll ever even get nominated.
Speaker CSo I was wrong about that.
Speaker CI wish I could find that person and go, hey, I'm really sorry.
Speaker CBut you know, since then, since then, these cop conferences, they've become more.
Speaker CThe last one, what was it?
Speaker C28.
Speaker CWhat was the last one?
Speaker CThe cop.
Speaker CWow.
Speaker BYeah, sorry.
Speaker BIt was all.
Speaker BIt was in.
Speaker BIt was in.
Speaker BIt was in Emirates.
Speaker BYeah, it was in the Emirates.
Speaker CI wasn't there, but the presence of the fossil fuel industry and like you were just saying, after all this time, nothing has really happened substantially.
Speaker CI've kind of lost my faith in these cop conferences because it just doesn't.
Speaker BNothing.
Speaker CThere's a lot of talk and we have, we have the Paris agreement, which even if we were to.
Speaker CIf all the countries were to do their nationally.
Speaker CWhat is it?
Speaker BDiet.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BMeet their agree to obligation.
Speaker CYou know what the science says still be not enough.
Speaker CAnd ratcheting up ambition and all these, like the G7, they want to phase out unabated coal.
Speaker CThere's just a lot of loopholes that leaves avenues for nothing to happen.
Speaker CAnd so I can understand people's frustration.
Speaker CBut on the other hand, you know, I have some of these people, like I was talking about the trolls that, that harass me coming from the Midwest, like right now they're in the middle.
Speaker BOf a heat wave.
Speaker CAnd I mean, they're experiencing the climate change, but they're still denying it, which is interesting to me.
Speaker CI mean, they see the climate changing and I've talked to other people that are like, working on the ground, like farmers and people that.
Speaker CSki resort owners, they, they see it too.
Speaker CBut I think they're more open to admitting that climate change is real.
Speaker CThey might not like.
Speaker BThey might not like aoc, they might feel their back hairs go up when AOC is on television, but they see.
Speaker CThe climate is changing.
Speaker BYeah, there's a few ways to think about that.
Speaker BBut the basic thing is very similar to the vaccine, to the way people in those parts of the country were celebrating, sometimes not taking the vaccine, although you kind of suspected they were taking the vaccinations and then pretending that they hadn't taken the.
Speaker BThat's my assumption.
Speaker BBut it shows just how powerful.
Speaker BThey're yelling angrily about how this isn't true while they are, you know, wiping the humidity off the inside of their windshields while they're driving.
Speaker BIt shows just how inflamed we are, how effective medicine became for both parties.
Speaker BThat you would celebrate the thing that's causing you discomfort and you would feel that you were Being a good member of your tribe, one of the things that you would think about maybe, is that a national system and planet that was given this data and converted into a normal argument.
Speaker BIt's a little bit like a, it's like a, it's sort of like a test to see just how effective we are as a people.
Speaker BAnd I don't just mean here, but overseas too.
Speaker BLike, like if we can't, if we can't see past that, you could argue maybe that's the verdict, maybe that's physics verdict on this thing that we built.
Speaker BDo you see what I mean?
Speaker BI know that there's a process where you drink a thing that's like grapefruit juice at a doctor's office and then your, your, your circulatory system pumps it out to all areas of your body and then you stand in front of a screen and they can see how the different systems are working.
Speaker BYeah, this issue is like that at every level and like we can see what works and doesn't work.
Speaker BAnd so one of the things it shows us is that tribalism is so strong and we only have two tribes.
Speaker BSo it becomes a dull argument too, because it's just, I don't like you.
Speaker BYou know, we are us, you are them.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BSo it's not even, it's not even interesting to follow in a way, but it shows that the thing that we built doesn't work well for solving large problems.
Speaker BHere's the second thing that to me is fascinating and it's interesting to see.
Speaker BSo when I talk to climate scientists, the expression that you had when you were talking about the conference of the parties is just the way they talk about that and they talk about politics, which is just this system doesn't work and not something that they would want to talk about publicly because one is supposed to be optimistic about it.
Speaker BBut in a weird way, that's the same experience, expression, it, the, the anger.
Speaker BSaying it's a hoax isn't that different.
Speaker BIt's just that in Europe, in the case of what you're talking about, the performance of concern about this is hoaxy to you.
Speaker BJust like the.
Speaker BDo you know what I mean?
Speaker BYou're like, this is something that we do.
Speaker BIt is time intensive, it is literally expensive, it is carpet intensive.
Speaker BAnd it's just so that we can do what a cargo cult is.
Speaker BThat's such a great idea.
Speaker BLet me just write something down.
Speaker BSo, cargo cults, it's not clear whether they exist, but I think they probably did exist.
Speaker BSo let's say you're on the Solomon Islands, and It's World War II.
Speaker BAnd you just.
Speaker BYour society is still in the developing world, and we are from the developed world.
Speaker BAnd so the US Military comes in to use your island as a staging ground for fights to take.
Speaker BTo take the islands that the Japanese have occupied away from the Japanese, because there's a lot of that fighting within the Pacific.
Speaker BBut you haven't.
Speaker BYou.
Speaker BYour society is not a highly organized one yet.
Speaker BSo people come in and they are covered in a green or blue thing which has shiny things up the middle, right?
Speaker BAnd then they also are taking parts of your island, and they are smoothing them out.
Speaker BAnd then sometimes machines land there and leave cargo.
Speaker BAnd sometimes they will go with what look like glowing rods.
Speaker BThey're flashlights with things on top.
Speaker BAnd they go into the middle of the paved area, and then they wave them.
Speaker BAnd then from the sky, boxes of cargo come down.
Speaker BThings you can eat, wonderful tools, things you can drink.
Speaker BAnd so after the military left, people on those islands, this is what the phrase cargo cult means.
Speaker BThey would paint their bodies the same colors as the uniforms even.
Speaker BSo they would have versions of the epaulettes, they would have versions of the uniform colors, and then they would have things that look like buttons, and then they would construct things that looked like landing strips from, like, shells.
Speaker BAnd then they would go and they would perform the same motions that you would use to signal to airplanes to drop your cargo, and they would try to do that to get good stuff.
Speaker BAnd you could argue that our performances of concern, our annual performances of concern about this issue are cargo cult behavior.
Speaker BIt's a way to say, look, it's going to occupy our news for 17 days.
Speaker BAt the end of every couple of years, there will be expressions of support on this issue from every important leader.
Speaker BWe will have done our diligence on this, and then we'll go back to doing whatever we want for the rest of the year.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BAnd that's how some of the scientists feel about the elections, which are.
Speaker BThey would come out and say it was really important.
Speaker BAnd especially when President Obama sort of ran on the issue and then chose health care instead.
Speaker BIt made them have the same smile that you have on your face right now.
Speaker BThe other thing I was going to say, which is just a weird thing, is, and maybe we'll get to this.
Speaker BHard to know how to phrase this, but the fracking thing is a good way to think about this.
Speaker BWe are morally organized animals.
Speaker BAnd so one of the things that's been fascinating about climate is that fossil Fuels offered us a free lunch.
Speaker BAnd there's some part of us, some primitive Grimm's, Brothers Grimm's Fairy Tales part of us that gets nervous about free lunches that like, ah, I told you that there would be a price to pay.
Speaker BExactly.
Speaker BSo that morally it makes sense to us.
Speaker BThe primitive, the, the part of us that's wired towards believing in stories with morals was like, you know, we've had a good ride for, for a century and a half with these very messy fuels, but there was always going to be a price that seems right to us.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThe reality tracking thing is a good other way to look at it, which is this is a problem and we want there to be a moral solution, which is we were on a bender and we have to be abstemious.
Speaker BBut it may not be that at all.
Speaker BIt may be that there's going to be a technological solution which doesn't satisfy the moral animals that we are.
Speaker BBut on the other hand, if we look at it, it is only a technological problem.
Speaker BIt's not a moral failure.
Speaker BIt's not a moral.
Speaker BIt isn't a moral failure that we're responsible for.
Speaker BIt isn't a moral test that we were given to pass and failed.
Speaker BThere were few that made it seem that we could accelerate our medicine, our transportation, our cities.
Speaker BWe accepted the deal.
Speaker BAnd then it turned out to our horror there was a terrible side effect.
Speaker BBut if there's a technological solution to a technological problem, it won't suit us morally, but it makes a kind of narrative sense.
Speaker CYeah, yeah, but there's not going to be a widget that's going to get us out of this kind of thing.
Speaker BWell, that's the weird thing.
Speaker BSorry to.
Speaker BLook, I've been thinking about this for a very long time, have great conversation about it.
Speaker BIt's sort of a.
Speaker BJust as you can see, is a thrill.
Speaker BA friend of mine went to write speeches for one of the senators who is.
Speaker BHas historically been most closely allied with this issue.
Speaker BAnd so he went because he cared.
Speaker BAnd he was very surprised by the difference between that Senator's public and private self on this issue publicly was talking about changing behavior, changing cars, changing light bulbs, etc.
Speaker BBut in private, what this senator believed and what this senator's friends believed, and it helps us understand the behavior in Washington for the last 30 years.
Speaker BThey believe a widget will be invented.
Speaker BThat was shocking.
Speaker BMy friend completed his or her contract the day the contract was over.
Speaker BThey left that senator's employee.
Speaker BIt was a real demoralizing surprise that for all of the.
Speaker BFor all the public statements that we shouldn't count on a widget, that the people in D.C.
Speaker Bare counting on a widget.
Speaker BOnce.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BOnce you understand that their behavior since 88 makes perfect sense.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BThat's interesting.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnother thing that's fascinating is right from the beginning, and also the media, to which you and I both belong, be very proud of its coverage on this.
Speaker BThere's a lot of stories that they didn't get right.
Speaker BObviously, I care about the military, the second Iraq War, first Iraq war, but especially second Iraq War.
Speaker BThey did not distinguish.
Speaker BThey did not wrap themselves in glory because that war shouldn't have been fought in Iraq.
Speaker BBut, my God, have they wrapped themselves in glory on this issue.
Speaker BThey were on it quickly and they've been great on it.
Speaker BAnd in 1995, Time magazine was great on this issue.
Speaker BTime magazine has Roger Revell in 1956 saying, In 50 years, this could have a violent effect on the Earth's climate.
Speaker BAnd also there could be salt water running through the streets of New York and London.
Speaker B2012 just adds six years to his prediction.
Speaker BWas the second wettest year in Britain's history.
Speaker BLondon wasn't flooded because they had the Thames Seagate.
Speaker BAnd New York did flood that year, and there was salt water running on the streets of Manhattan.
Speaker BHurricane Sandy shorted out the lower part of the island.
Speaker BSo Time magazine, that same Time magazine that ran a story that in 1956, in 1955, they went to a professor at the MIT School of Business, and he said, if you wanted to devise a problem that human institutions aren't set up to solve, you couldn't find a better one.
Speaker BYou couldn't create a better one than global warming.
Speaker BIt is just at the base of so much.
Speaker BAnd this problem is so circular that 20 years later, Yale had had.
Speaker BWe've had.
Speaker BPeople like ourselves and people in general have had so much trouble they feel, communicating the seriousness of the issue, that Yale set up a school the same way they have a law school and a medical school.
Speaker BThey have a school and a climate Communications.
Speaker CYeah, yeah.
Speaker BAnd in 2012, the head of that school was being interviewed by the Times, and he said, yeah, it'd be hard to think of a problem that so goes against our basic mental wiring.
Speaker BIt'd be hard to think of one that's so against our basic mental wiring than this one.
Speaker BAnd so all you had happen in the 20 years between those two quotes is just a different person saying the same thing.
Speaker BYeah, yeah.
Speaker BThe difficulties.
Speaker BThe difficulties in solving this Are it's a technological problem.
Speaker BIt is at the base of so much of the stuff that we do.
Speaker BAnd reporters have accurately said that this is extremely serious.
Speaker BPoliticians suggest that it's serious for reasons of their own.
Speaker BAnd then they don't act as if it's serious.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BWhich then already plays into a pre existing culture and you get the situation that you get hundreds of unpleasant communications from people who feel it's in their long term interest to say don't take away our fuel.
Speaker CYeah, right.
Speaker CWhat would happen if these congresspeople, these leaders were straightforward and said, you know, it's a technical problem.
Speaker CWe need to find a technical.
Speaker CYou tell me, by the way, I.
Speaker BThink it would be better.
Speaker BSo scientists.
Speaker BThere's a great.
Speaker BI really love Dr.
Speaker BHansen, James Hansen.
Speaker BAnd Hanson said that the politics just will never work on this issue.
Speaker BSo he thought.
Speaker BHe continues to think that the courts are the way to do it.
Speaker BCourts end up being effective against tobacco.
Speaker BHe may not know that, but they ended up being effective against tobacco in a way that legislation was or couldn't be.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BJust there were too many different interests, whereas the courts were able to do it.
Speaker BI love the thing that.
Speaker BAnd if you know his background, he had a terrible time getting his facts to the people who paid for it.
Speaker BHe had a terrible time getting his research data to the American people.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BLike the Bush White House rewrote his testimony.
Speaker BReagan tried to close down his division at Godard, the NASA, the NASA satellite that he works with at Columbia.
Speaker BFinally, when the data is brought forward, Professor Hanson has to then see that there is no particular action taken on this.
Speaker BAnd he said this great thing, he just said that it's as if we don't know.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BLike our action wouldn't have been different, you know, if we hadn't known.
Speaker BOur action wouldn't be any different, wouldn't be any different than it is now that we do know.
Speaker BAnd that's one of those things that becomes extremely haunting, you know, after you live through this.
Speaker CIt is, it is because like you say there's been 30, 40 years at least like you describe in the book, in the turn of the 20th century.
Speaker CWhat was his name?
Speaker CArrhenius.
Speaker BYeah, Arrhenius.
Speaker BYeah, Arrhenius.
Speaker CThey saw it happening a long, long time ago.
Speaker CThey probably didn't realize what they didn't realize, I think was like the great acceleration in the 50s and the just huge expansion of consumption.
Speaker BYeah, sorry, go to your question.
Speaker BBut I can explain to you what Arrhenius got wrong, which is Kind of fascinating.
Speaker BNot that he got wrong what he didn't anticipate, but where were you?
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker CAt this point, our reaction is just.
Speaker CIt's the same as if we just had no idea.
Speaker BYeah, exactly.
Speaker BHe said that it wouldn't make any difference.
Speaker BYou would think that difference.
Speaker CAnd so now I think we're at the point now in the 2000 and twenties that it's coming home to roost.
Speaker CClimate change is actually starting to kick our butt a little bit.
Speaker CMy general rhetorical question is, so how do we start from where we are now?
Speaker CWe can't do anything about what's behind us.
Speaker CThat's gone.
Speaker CWe've wasted that time.
Speaker CWe have to move forward.
Speaker CHow do we go about that?
Speaker BYeah, it's an interesting one.
Speaker BSo with Hansen, that's one of the things that's great about him.
Speaker BHe said this great thing before he went to brief.
Speaker BHe was going to brief the energy task force that Cheney was running for Bush.
Speaker BAnd experience would tell you that was going to be not a serious task force.
Speaker BIn fact, experience would tell you the results of that task force finding in advance.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThey're going to say, let's keep doing what we're doing.
Speaker BBut he had to brief them and he gave them a great briefing just the same.
Speaker BAnd he said this great thing, he said, because they give him the invitation and should you take it, should you go to the White House and brief them when you're pretty sure that they're not going to act on your data?
Speaker BBut he said this great thing.
Speaker BBeing an eternal optimist, what else could be effective?
Speaker BI welcome the chance.
Speaker BI love that scientific approach.
Speaker BThat's just science, which is what else is effective?
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIf I'm pessimistic, it won't be effective.
Speaker BSimilarly, if we look at the 40 year version of this, which involves the culture war, if we looked at it the way scientists would look at it, it would be like, this approach is ineffective.
Speaker BNow you could argue if you were looking at it as an AI.
Speaker BYou see what I mean?
Speaker BLike, this hasn't worked to generate mass public support.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo this approach where Democrats are in favor, the Red Team is not in favor.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BIt hasn't led.
Speaker BEven when we, even when we had, sorry to speak as an actual Democrat, but even when we had all three branches.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BAnd when we, we had a majority in the Supreme Court, or at least we had a.
Speaker BWe had a compliance standoff and we had the House and the Senate and the White House 2000, 2009-2011.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BBy January, we've lost that.
Speaker BWe no longer have all three branches.
Speaker BEven then, we don't pass it.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo you could argue that for whatever reason, Rahm Emanuel, whose job it is to understand what's going to be popular and what isn't, he determines that health care is smarter to do than climate legislation.
Speaker BSo that we could argue that this approach hasn't worked.
Speaker BSo if we were scientists, we would be like, let's not apportion blame.
Speaker BBut if we're looking at this, enlisting this in labor vs.
Speaker BTories, right.
Speaker BThat doesn't work.
Speaker BLabor vs.
Speaker BTories is in every world capital just as different.
Speaker BBut that hasn't been successful for dealing with this.
Speaker BSo we have to have a different approach.
Speaker BTechnologists would probably say, and if there is a widget in the same way that tracking turns out to have been a good widget here in America.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThink about it.
Speaker BWe went from 50% coal to 20%.
Speaker BThat's only because of a widget.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIt just, it made more economic sense.
Speaker BSo if you're a technologist, the way this might look in 50 years is they squabbled.
Speaker BThe people who weren't in the business squabbled for a while and in the background, the engineers solved the problem.
Speaker BBut it was nice.
Speaker BIt gave them something to do and it kept them out of our hair.
Speaker BThe other thing that's super, that's been interesting for me is that do you remember the ozone, the ozone crisis of our youths?
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BDo you remember how it happened?
Speaker BIt was totally fascinating.
Speaker BLike Sherwood Rowland, he and Mark Molina do research and they're just looking for a topic.
Speaker BThat's what science, that's what university science can be like.
Speaker BHe's just curious what's happening to the chlorofluorocarbons when they get sprayed out of the hair can or the underarm can.
Speaker BAnd so they do their research and to both of their tremendous surprise, the CFC molecules, each one can take out something somewhere between 10,000 and 100,000 molecules of ozone and it's going to start causing terrible skin cancer.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BFor example, just one of the outcomes is that the cancer to which, like Australian cows, since they are closer to the sun, they get a horrible eye cancer because of our eating away the ozone.
Speaker BAnd if you look at pictures of it online, it is a horrifying thing to see.
Speaker BBut in any event, they published their results and they say, look, we've got it.
Speaker BWe can't use this.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThere was a state senator at the time who said it's simply an unconscionable way to deliver a Durham deodorant.
Speaker BAnd there's intense pushback, and it was only about a billion dollars per year in DuPont's giant corporate portfolio.
Speaker BBut there is tremendous pushback.
Speaker BAnd when you get to that section of the book, it's the exact same.
Speaker BIt's like the Spanish Civil War for World War II.
Speaker BLike, a lot of the things that you'll recognize that were run about global warming were run on the ozone fight, what were called the ozone wars.
Speaker BAnd there was a stalemate.
Speaker BThey were saying, it's too big a sector.
Speaker BWhy should America change?
Speaker BBecause India and China are coming online and we can't affect them.
Speaker BSo if America changes the way it uses chloroformal carbons.
Speaker BHard to say that word.
Speaker BIf we unilaterally give up the profit we can make from these chemicals, India and China, much bigger markets, they're going to keep doing it and we'll still lose our ozone.
Speaker BAnd it was a total stalemate until just by chance, a British team at the bottom of South America found out there was a giant hole in the ozone.
Speaker BNo one anticipated that, but you could not argue against it.
Speaker BIt was just.
Speaker BJust like our using these chemicals that eat between each molecule, eats between 10,000 and 100,000 molecules of ozone.
Speaker BNo one anticipated this.
Speaker BYou can't keep arguing whether it's going to happen, whether it's just computer simulations.
Speaker BHere it is.
Speaker BAnd within two years, they had hammered out the Montreal particles.
Speaker BSo since then, the climate scientists, a lot of whom lived through that, they had kept waiting for something like the ozone hole, a convincing demonstration of their data.
Speaker BInteresting thing for the story, the wonderful triple decker novel that we're living through with this is that the ozone hole was discovered.
Speaker BYou know, was measured, discovered and brought to public attention about 11 years after this became a national issue.
Speaker BSo it was still like, it was still on the first act of the movie, right?
Speaker BSo people were like, is it true?
Speaker BIs it not true?
Speaker BHoly s.
Speaker BIt's true.
Speaker BWe have to act, right?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BThey were waiting and waiting.
Speaker BAnd many climate scientists felt that the terrible summers of the last couple of years, and especially last summer, they felt that would be the ozone hole.
Speaker BAnd it seemed like it during the time.
Speaker BThe problem is that it's coming not in the first act of the movie, but in the middle of the third act, or just.
Speaker BWe don't know how long this movie is going to be.
Speaker BMaybe it's in the middle of the movie.
Speaker BAnd at that point we've gotten used to the warnings and so it didn't have the galvanizing effect that the ozone hole had.
Speaker BAnd that becomes really, really odd.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo you're saying that it's finally kicking our butt.
Speaker BYeah, but what people have found is enough people were talking about how this needed to be cured, that it was the number one priority.
Speaker B20, 30, 40 years.
Speaker BThe sun kept rising.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BAnd they kept being able to ski and swim in the process.
Speaker BSeasons.
Speaker BAnd they realized it's a horrible thing.
Speaker BDo you know that old Moynihan term defining deviancy down?
Speaker CYeah, yeah.
Speaker BIt's politically charged.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BBecause he was not.
Speaker BHe.
Speaker BHe wouldn't.
Speaker BHe's not racially sensitive in the wonderful way that the culture has become sense.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BLike, he.
Speaker BHe represents the cultural sensitivities of his time, but his basic idea is.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BHis basic idea is we can get used to.
Speaker BAnd in the interim, we got used to it.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CIt's like the.
Speaker CThe boiling frog idea.
Speaker CYou know?
Speaker BYou know the boiling frog thing.
Speaker BWhen you get.
Speaker BThere's a section in the book called the Frog, which I always love because it's very short.
Speaker BIt's like, I don't know, 1100 words.
Speaker BIt turns out that the boiling frog thing is not true.
Speaker BSo, yeah, a business magazine fault called Fast Company just decided to test it.
Speaker BIf you drop a frog in water that's already boiling right out, and if you drop them into lukewarm water that's heating, they jump out only a second later.
Speaker BThe only people, it turns out, who will stay are us.
Speaker BThe only creatures who will stay are us.
Speaker BYeah, exactly.
Speaker BNo, only humans like frogs.
Speaker BThey talked to a guy from Harvard and he chuckled and said, yeah, they won't sit still for you.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CYou know, now that you say that, it kind of makes sense.
Speaker CI always wondered, why would a frog.
Speaker CSomething gets hot enough, you're gonna leave.
Speaker BIf you're a frog or whatever.
Speaker BYeah, exactly.
Speaker BThe fact that our basic metaphor for this is wrong.
Speaker BIt's a myth and not true.
Speaker BLet that be the part that stands for the whole.
Speaker BEven the metaphor that we use for is incorrect.
Speaker CThat's a good point.
Speaker CIt illustrates the whole inadequacy of the narrative that we've constructed around this.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BAnd then also we would blame the poor frogs that we would say frogs, no, we are quite a bit duller.
Speaker BAlthough if there's a widget, and many people have behaved as if there's going to be a widget since this problem was discovered, and then I want to defend our heaviest for a second.
Speaker BBut if a widget is discovered, then this will have been very sensible behavior.
Speaker BWhat scientists say is that since you don't know if there'll be a discovery, it is prudent to have what one of Professor Hanson's colleagues at Columbia called just an insurance policy.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BThe insurance policy that we have is.
Speaker BIt's early.
Speaker BIt's fairly early in the book.
Speaker BIt's a very simple geoengineering thing.
Speaker BSo the professor who was arguing for this was saying, look, if it gets really bad, no one likes the sulfur dioxide release, but if we have to, that would cool us down by a full degree.
Speaker BSo it doesn't seem intelligent to count on something that hasn't been invented yet.
Speaker CExactly.
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker CAnd, well, it's the precautionary principle, you know.
Speaker BYeah, absolutely.
Speaker BBut interesting to think that as Fred Singer, the precautionary principle was one of his favorite principles.
Speaker BSo here's why he got it wrong.
Speaker BBasic thing is, so he and his, you know, he begins examining this just because he belongs to a scientific society that meets.
Speaker BAnd in the, you know, in the course of one of those wonderful boozy sciencey evenings, they will address various topics.
Speaker BAnd one that came up is what causes ice ages.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BAnd so he went back, checked Tyndale's research from the late.
Speaker BFrom late 50s for him, 1850s, and he sees his carbon dioxide.
Speaker BSo he spends a year plotting out by hand what would happen if you have, have or doubled the carbon dioxide in square, you know, square meters of the Earth.
Speaker BAnd so he comes up.
Speaker BIt's his.
Speaker BI'm sure his results were surprising to him.
Speaker BHe said it was the most tedious of his life's calculations.
Speaker BAnd he said that he had never.
Speaker BHe hadn't crammed for anything.
Speaker BHe had never crammed for anything harder since school took him a full year.
Speaker BAnd he found that if you have carbon dioxide ice ages again, and if you doubled it, you had a Fahrenheit increase of between 4 and 9 degrees, 4 and 10 degrees, pretty much what computers were taught in the generations to come.
Speaker BHe's Swedish.
Speaker BThat's good news for him and some of his friends, they're like, hey, why wait?
Speaker BThis is, you know, your data makes sense.
Speaker BLet's take some of the.
Speaker BAnd also what's fascinating about that period is people already thought that we were like energy hogs.
Speaker BSo people were using much more coal than scientists thought was warranted.
Speaker BAnd so he said that there is an anxiety that we are spending coal, you know, too quickly, that we are expand thread generation.
Speaker BBut as in so many things, there is.
Speaker BAnd then he expresses the silver lining, in a way that's slightly more 1890s, but it's a positive side, which is that we will have more equitable climates for a rapidly propagating mankind.
Speaker BIt'll be warmer in three or 400 years.
Speaker BIt'll be warmer because we are using too much fuel.
Speaker BHis friends didn't want to wait.
Speaker BAnd they were like, you know what we should do?
Speaker BWe should take some coal mines that are already mined out, that still have carbon in them and let's light them on fire so we can get more smoke going out, so we can have climate change now.
Speaker BThe reason why he thought it was centuries ahead was that two great sinks, as you know, you know, okay, you know this stuff.
Speaker BBut for.
Speaker BSo the.
Speaker BThe land sink is trees and the water sink is water.
Speaker BSo he thought that the oceans would absorb it and then they would release it slowly over a century.
Speaker BOver a century timescale.
Speaker BSo that carbon that was absorbed by the oceans in 1896 wouldn't cycle through and be released until 2050 or until 2150.
Speaker BAnd so it would take a long time to load it so much that suddenly what would seem sudden in two or 300 years was actually based on the carbon that was being released 1890, 1900, 1910.
Speaker BWhat Roger Revell found in the 50s, because he was an oceanographer is, is yes, the oceans will hold it, they will absorb it, but they respond to changes allergically, and they will very quickly release it.
Speaker BSo that it's not that we can bank all that carbon that is a big sink, but it doesn't release it slowly.
Speaker BIt's going to release it extremely quickly.
Speaker BSo that was why Darhenius was wrong.
Speaker BAnd so that was the thing that Revelle discovered, which is, it's not going to be happening in the 21st or the 2200s.
Speaker BIt's going to be happening now.
Speaker BLet me hire somebody who's good at measuring carbon dioxide.
Speaker BIf this is right, it will be measurable annually.
Speaker BAnd so he hired Dave Keelig because he was a government guy.
Speaker BThis was always mainstream science.
Speaker BThe Navy was putting up an observatory on Molana in Hawaii.
Speaker BThat's a great place to get clean air.
Speaker BSo he says, set up a testing thing there, and every year it's higher.
Speaker BBut Arrhenius just had it.
Speaker BSince Arrhenius is a chemist and not an oceanographer, he just thought the oceans would hold it for quite a bit longer time than they would hold it now.
Speaker BI have defended Arrhenius daughter.
Speaker CGive him some slack.
Speaker CYou know, that's Interesting.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker CThe Keeling Curve started the year I was born, was 1958, right?
Speaker BYeah.
Speaker BHe's publishing and he starts doing it.
Speaker BYeah, 58 sounds right to me.
Speaker BHe is measuring.
Speaker BHe's just fixated on measuring it.
Speaker BYeah, 58 sounds right.
Speaker BHe didn't publish the results until the fourth year he had data for.
Speaker BSo 58 sounds right.
Speaker BI think he started measuring from 53 just because his departmental chairman bet him that it would be hard to measure carbon dioxide.
Speaker BAnd so he accepted that bet.
Speaker BThat was why he was the person who was recommended to Revelle, was because he had been measuring this for a while before.
Speaker BSo they have data.
Speaker BSo, yeah.
Speaker BSo you're right about when it's first published.
Speaker BAbsolutely.
Speaker BSo when you give lectures about it.
Speaker CI characterize myself as the CO2 keeling curve, baby.
Speaker CI was born when that started.
Speaker BThat's great.
Speaker BMartin Amos felt the same way.
Speaker BMartin Amos said that he was born the same year.
Speaker BI think it was the test of the first Hill Bomb.
Speaker BAnd so he felt that same connection to that issue.
Speaker BAnd so ended up writing two books about it.
Speaker BInteresting.
Speaker CThis is great talking to you.
Speaker CWhat got you started on all of this?
Speaker CBecause you've written a few books, but.
Speaker BWhat happened?
Speaker BYou're trying to make it smooth, but it's like, yeah, you've written some other books.
Speaker BNot on this topic.
Speaker BSo I was working on a different book.
Speaker BAnd I came across stuff that showed how long we'd known about this.
Speaker BAnd as I heard about the environment, I just got extremely angry.
Speaker BDo you know that poet, Robert Lowell?
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BSo this answer is going to take, let's say, five minutes plus.
Speaker BBut it'll be interesting.
Speaker BSo Robert Lowell's wife is a great essayist named Elizabeth Hardwick.
Speaker BAnd she said a great thing about writing.
Speaker BShe taught writing at Columbia for decades.
Speaker BAnd was one of the great writing teachers her students like.
Speaker BAmazing.
Speaker BAnd she's also super brilliant.
Speaker BNot just brilliant, but a super brilliant essayist.
Speaker BAnyway, she said there are only two good reasons to write anything.
Speaker BMoney and revenge.
Speaker BAnd so for me, it was revenge.
Speaker BI saw it was a different project that I was on.
Speaker BAnd actually one that I was paid substantially more money than this.
Speaker BSo that I both embraced and failed.
Speaker BSo I got one right and one wrong, by Hardwick's estimation.
Speaker BBut in doing something and working on something different, I came across the fact that Revelle had brought this to the world's attention in 1957.
Speaker BAnd it's in Time magazine in 56.
Speaker BAnd then especially I learned this, which is early in this century.
Speaker BIt Was clear that we were warming up and no one knew how to account for it.
Speaker BAnd so you'd keep seeing stories like that Associated Press or in the Times.
Speaker BOne day in 1933 you could pick up the New York Times and on the left side of the above the fold part where the headlines are, it would say this is in the book.
Speaker BWe have to close down Al Capone speakeasies.
Speaker BAnd on the right there's a story that the Nazis promise to end attacks on Jews and the Reich.
Speaker BAnd in between, a story about Adolf Hitler and Al Capone.
Speaker BIs America in longest heat wave in history.
Speaker BExperts note 25 year rising red line.
Speaker BNo one understands why this is happening.
Speaker BSo that's kind of how far back this goes.
Speaker BAnd people were trying to account for it in the 50s it became a large issue in the culture.
Speaker BThis was staggering to learn and it was worth a book to write about.
Speaker BBy 61.
Speaker BThe New York Times is describing it as one of the primary concerns of scientists in the period of oceanographers and climatologists is what do about carbon dioxide.
Speaker BDid you see Oppenheimer?
Speaker CYes.
Speaker BOkay, so you know, you didn't need Oppenheimer know about the Manhattan Project.
Speaker BSo the Manhattan Project shortens the war and also gives us radar which allows us to have our air travel system 10 years after.
Speaker BAnd then it disbands.
Speaker BIt's like the Beatles release a number of great tracks and they disband, no hard feelings.
Speaker BTen years later the defense establishment is like, you know, we have other things that are coming up.
Speaker BLet's get the band back together.
Speaker BAnd so a lot of the Manhattan people reform as a group called Jason.
Speaker BThis is my back of the envelope summary of something that you were back to read in the book.
Speaker BIt's in the section about Carter.
Speaker BSo if you read the section called Wood Chips and the Malaise you will read this history of the Jason's.
Speaker BSo the Jasons are the scientists.
Speaker BThey are the Manhattan, the Manhattan Project veterans and people they would pick.
Speaker BSo they pick their own new members and they are secret and they deal with questions that the defense establishment asked them to deal with.
Speaker BSo that for example, one reason we didn't use atomics in Vietnam, Jason's advise against it.
Speaker BThey also advised a version of smart weapons.
Speaker BSo our research in smart weapons is also thanks to the Jasons.
Speaker BSo that the Iron Dome, for example is one of the foreseeable outcomes of the advice coming from the Jason's in the 70s.
Speaker BRoger Revell, he's our leading oceanographer, he's our reading he's our leading oceanographer.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BHe's so famous that there are buildings named after him, colleges named after him.
Speaker BI think UC Davis while he's still alive.
Speaker BWhat a great thing to see.
Speaker BLike Reville College.
Speaker BHey, that's great.
Speaker BAnyway, so it's a little bit like, like checking a drug, promising drug.
Speaker BSo he publishes those results in the 50s and then there's 20 years of seeing what his results are like in 20 years of following the.
Speaker BThe Schenerman curve.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BHuman girl.
Speaker BAnd so in the mid-70s the results start coming in and reading this is what made me where they want to tell this great Godfather like catch 22, like big book story is that 77.
Speaker BThe first National Academy of Science.
Speaker BNational Academy of Science report comes in and it is 340 pages and it is front page news.
Speaker BAnd even in Business World Week what they're saying, Department of Energy is saying we will make big changes and fast.
Speaker BAnd there are so many meetings.
Speaker BWe were talking about this earlier.
Speaker BYou were talking about it with regard to cop and you'll find this in the Reagan section.
Speaker BThere was already so much work going on that one of the people in the DOE is saying if anything has been meeting to death, it's carbon dioxide.
Speaker BIf meetings could fix problems, this would be solved by.
Speaker BAnd so all these big reports come in and they are in the Times.
Speaker BThey're not secret.
Speaker BLike the Jace report comes in in the spring of 79 and the chairman of that report because they're still secret.
Speaker BIf you ever, if you ever look at the Times article about it, it's like a report that was presented to the Department of Energy and they're not saying you're at home which would mean if you were in government you would know that it's the Jason's but it was also going to the White House.
Speaker BThe head of that report says people think it's far off but the government is going to have to start dealing with this now because on environmental quality they present a report that spring and they say the head of it is Gus Speth who ends up being fired from the Council of Environmental Quality once Reagan comes in.
Speaker BBut he tells the Times that he expects that the report will become extremely influential in government circles.
Speaker BAnd he's right.
Speaker BWithin a year or two Reagan is elected and tries to shut down the council that he's on.
Speaker BBut he says that this is going to start happening not far off.
Speaker BIt's going to start happening in the 80s and 90s.
Speaker BSo those reports come and the Carter White House is especially unnerved by the Jason Report.
Speaker BThe Jason report says this is ominous.
Speaker BAnd the chairman of the Jason report says we have to deal with it now.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BAnd then.
Speaker BAnd the message from both.
Speaker BAnd I said the Times is this is going to be a problem unless mitigating actions are taken immediately.
Speaker BCarter does.
Speaker BAnd this is what made me want to write the book.
Speaker BCarter turns to the National Academy of Science and says, is this real?
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BObviously jason's are saying it, these other scientists are saying it.
Speaker BYou guys just gave me a report on it in 77.
Speaker BIs this going to happen?
Speaker BAnd so they form a panel and it's all new.
Speaker BIt's not people who've been working on the issue and they report back very quickly and what they say.
Speaker BAnd this was so meaningful that I pretty much have it memorized.
Speaker BThe results of this brief but intense panel will be reassuring the scientists.
Speaker BBrackets.
Speaker BScientists don't like to have their.
Speaker BRemember this, this science is 1859.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BSo you wouldn't want it to be wrong.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BIt'll be reassuring to scientists but disturbing to policymakers.
Speaker BIf the, if the carbon dioxide release continues.
Speaker BThis panel finds no reason to believe that climate changes will not result and no reason to believe those changes will be negligible.
Speaker BAnd then we have looked, but we have found no unforeseen factors that would offset the presently predicted global warming that comes in July 29, 1979.
Speaker BAnd pretty much done nothing since then.
Speaker BAnd so my revenge for that was bringing the story.
Speaker BThat's.
Speaker BIt's a great, funny story, but it's a story.
Speaker BThat's who we are.
Speaker BThat's what our system is right now.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BLike whatever else I was working on.
Speaker BAnd then I also thought, since people had often discussed when they reviewed my other books how entertaining they are for better or worse, I thought that it was.
Speaker BThe thing I could do would be to tell the story in a way that it would be a lot of fun to read and so that you would know how long, how long the tale is, how long the history of this issue is and that you couldn't be misled about it anymore.
Speaker BRight.
Speaker BSo I stopped whatever else I was doing and did this.
Speaker BSo that's how I did it.
Speaker BI was motivated by a third thing that Elizabeth Hartwood would shake her head about.
Speaker BI was motivated by angry altruism.
Speaker CWell, you know, I'm, I'm glad that you got your revenge as somebody who's, you know, dealt with writing about climate change for many years and struggled with the narrative, the book, I mean, it's Kind of just what.
Speaker CWhat is needed, I think, because it's like reading a novel and it's like a tragic comedy, and it tells the story from the very beginning.
Speaker CYou know, there's so many people that just think that this came up, like a decade ago or something.
Speaker CAnd so I think thought processes and books and writing like yours is the kind of thing that might just, you know, make a difference.
Speaker CYou get the revenge.
Speaker CGet your revenge.
Speaker BThomas, I love what you said so much.
Speaker BI wrote it down.
Speaker BThat was.
Speaker BThat was.
Speaker BYou know, that was what it was a lot of.
Speaker BI never worked on a book longer or harder, but it seemed it was worth doing just for that reason.
Speaker BAnd then you also, you.
Speaker BYou know, especially if there's some part of a certain kind of personality.
Speaker BAnd if you read.
Speaker BIf you skip ahead just for fun, if you skip to the opening of the section of the book that's called the igloo, actually, do you have the book handy?
Speaker BI do.
Speaker BIt's the opening of the epilogue.
Speaker BDon't read it out loud or anything, but tell me if this matches your experience.
Speaker BYeah, I'm reading it.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BOkay, great.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BJust tell me if that rings true for you.
Speaker CYeah, I think it does.
Speaker BIt does.
Speaker CI sometimes will joke with people that I'm no fun at parties.
Speaker BYeah, exactly.
Speaker BAnd the guy who.
Speaker BDid he design Gelspan?
Speaker COh, yeah.
Speaker BI always felt bad for him because whatever else he might have done, he got sucked into the thing.
Speaker BAnd a certain kind of personality, the same personality that wants to tell people what's going on when people are lying all the time and where their story is changing in ways where you can point back.
Speaker BDo you remember that thing from Orwell?
Speaker BIt's such a beautiful detail that in the world of 1984, there are shortages for everything.
Speaker BAnd so.
Speaker BAnd chocolate is important to a British.
Speaker BA British taste bud.
Speaker BThe chocolate ration in October might be 14 grams per week.
Speaker BAnd then by November, It'll only be 10 grams per week.
Speaker BBut you don't want to say that your economy isn't working.
Speaker BSo this is a repeating gag throughout the book.
Speaker BGood news, the chocolate ration has been raised to 10 grams per week.
Speaker BGood news, the chocolate ration has been raised to 8 grams per week.
Speaker BAnd there's a certain kind of personality that wants to say, no, it was 14 and it was 12.
Speaker BThis isn't true.
Speaker BSo, yes, it's the positive that makes it thrilling to do the kind of stuff that we do, but it makes us not fun at parties.
Speaker BI just was curious if that was your Experience.
Speaker BExperience, too.
Speaker CYeah, it is.
Speaker CI get the feeling people just wish I'd shut up about it sometimes.
Speaker BWell, that's like it's.
Speaker BWe got a great deal.
Speaker BIt was just meant to be.
Speaker BIt was meant just to be something you could read for fun, because you could read some cool thriller for fun, and you could also read this for fun, and then you would be harder to lie to.
Speaker BBut Christopher Monkton, who was like, he has gone to copes too.
Speaker BHe's banned for life for a good reason.
Speaker BHe wrote a thing saying it was bullshit.
Speaker BHe's not a scientist.
Speaker BHe's never been a scientist.
Speaker BThe Daily Telegraph published it and it broke their server in the first 24 hours because so many people wanted to read it because it would be much better.
Speaker BIt's the same reason why people, smart news personalities, wanted to believe Climategate.
Speaker BWhat could be better news than the fact that we can fly and we can draw effect and we can charge our phones?
Speaker BOf course they want us to go away.
Speaker CYeah, but.
Speaker CBut the thing is, we can go away, but climate change isn't.
Speaker CSo, you know.
Speaker BThere you go.
Speaker BYeah, it's very funny that.
Speaker BThat's just.
Speaker BThat's what the climate scientists rule is.
Speaker BIt's just.
Speaker BIt's not an opinion thing.
Speaker BIt's just.
Speaker BIt's just an equation.
Speaker BAnd you can't reason with the equation.
Speaker BYou can't argue around it.
Speaker BThe equation's going to do what the equation's doing.
Speaker CYeah.
Speaker BAll right, Tom.
Speaker BI think so.
Speaker BYou want to go.
Speaker BThat could not have been more fun.
Speaker BIf you have any more questions or if you want to talk about it again, I love the conversation.
Speaker BOkay.
Speaker BIt was a treat.
Speaker BAccept my apology for the 10 minutes it took me to figure out that I could use my NYU account.
Speaker CNot a problem at all.
Speaker CNo, this has been great.
Speaker CI enjoyed the talk.
Speaker CThank you very much.
Speaker BThanks a lot for your time, Tom.
Speaker BI hope we'll talk again.
Speaker BOkay, see you.
Speaker CTake care.
Speaker BBye.
Speaker AThere's always more we can do to stop climate change.
Speaker ANo amount of engagement is too little.
Speaker AAnd now more than ever, your involvement matters.
Speaker ATo learn more and do more, visit globalwarmingisreal.com thanks for listening.
Speaker AI'm your host, Tom Schueneman.
Speaker AWe'll see you next time on Global Warming is Real.
Speaker BSa.